maxfreakout
Holofractale de l'hypervérité
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- 22/2/07
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Pariah a dit:*["1, 2, 3, 4, 5..........."
The reliability is dependent on the*size of the dataset*: having "1" means it is about as good as a guess, having 1,2,3,4,5 is better, but, a meaningful dataset still hasn't been presented, having 1,2,3,4,5,1,2,3,4,5,1,2,3,4,5 is much better, but even still, more data should if possible be made available. This all alludes to the use of statistical analysis, which leads on to the 95% confidence interval, or significance of variance for ANOVAs.]
the only way you could truly predict the future outcome of the series is if you know the formula for the series, which cannot be deduced from any finite dataset. The only data set which can be used to truly predict, is the entire sequence (ie an infinite dataset) which would make predictions useless anyway (you wouldnt need to predict if you already knew the entire sequence)
Pariah a dit:*[Remember that we use induction throughout our life to good effect: the closer I put my hand to a fire, the warmer my hands feel, if I come back to the fire and put my hands close to the fire my hands will feel warmer: this doesn't require some miraculous knowledge of the workings of chemical reactions, just observation. if we flip a coin to see whether our hands are going to be warmed or not we'll be wrong half the time, whether we know the workings of chemical reactions (read as "formula") or not.]
You have no choice but to constantly make inductive inferences, but that doesnt change the fact that inductive inferences are logically invalid
Pariah a dit:Your being hypocritical with the "oh noes, I can't make decisions about reality: what if I'm wrong" approach - you don't lay in catatonia just because you can't be certain about things, you eat and drink, you avoid harm. life requires a certain amount of practicality.
i am not saying that you cant make predictions, quite the opposite, i am saying you *have to* make predictions. But you cannot make TRUE predictions, that is impossible.
Pariah a dit:A prediction as far as I understand it doesn't require you to assign certainty, in essence prediction can still be wrong and be a prediction
yes that is why i am distinguishing between a prediction and a 'true prediction', you can (and always do) make the former, but not the latter
Pariah a dit:"How is vacuum fluctuation an 'uncaused cause'? Surely it is caused by the existence of the vacuum?"
Vacuum fluctuation *is* the vacuum (included in its definition); if you were to say it is caused by the vacuum, you would be admitting that it is "uncaused".
whatever caused the vacuum to exist, is the cause of the vacuum fluctuation, so it is not a first cause